03 Mar Up until now, this is just an issue of opportunities concept
From the replacing from inside the (1), you will find:
Which instance of Bayes' Theorem works together the simple situation in which you have one or two hypotheses H and you can J that are mutually private and you will as you thorough, and where you're looking for \(\Pr(H \mid E)\), that's, the probability that H is true offered research Age. What it exemplory case of Bayes' Theorem really does was give one with a way of figuring one to likelihood, so long as you to definitely understands, firstly, \(\Pr(H)\) and you can \(\Pr(J)\)-that is, new a good priori analytical probabilities of \(H\) and you can \(J\)-and have, next, \(\Pr(Age \middle H)\) and you will \(\Pr(Age \middle J)\)-which is, the logical probability of \(E\) offered, correspondingly, simply \(H\) and simply \(J\).
The good news is Draper brings up one or two substantive says. The very first is that a beneficial priori odds of the fresh new theory away from apathy is not lower than the new an effective priori likelihood of theism, to make sure that i have
Draper's 2nd substantive claim is the fact that the conjunction from propositions from the satisfaction and you may pain that Draper relates, and you can which is depicted because of the \(O\)' is much more apt to be true in the event the theory from indifference is true than just if the theism is valid.
